Will Windows shove Linux out of the Asus Eee PC?

Asus announced last month that Windows based Asus Eee PCs will become available starting December. Since Asus projects to ship only 200,000 units by year-end with analysts predicting sales of 3 to 6 million units next year, that means less than 5% to 10% of the projected first 15 months’ sales will have been shipped (all Linux (Xandros)-based machines) before users will have an alternative operating system (OS) in Microsoft’s Windows.

Apparently Microsoft must have sensed something in the Asus Eee PC as they agreed to lower their licensing fee to $40 to make the bundling more feasible. And while the Asus Eee PC website did not mention Windows XP in particular, there is much reason to believe the Windows version that will bundled will be XP. After all, the Asus Eee PC is an Intel Classmate PC. And Intel has, for some time now, been shipping Classmate PCs with 256MB RAM and 2GB flash drive and especially configured Windows XP/MS Office 2003 pre-installed.

Per reviews, this Classmate PC configuration can surf the web rather smoothly but begins to bog down with several Office documents opened simultaneously. So while Microsoft might use the same Windows XP, then again it might not. After all, it can opt for embedded Windows (though meant more for smaller devices and set-top boxes) or for Windows Fundamentals (intended for corporate accounts). While the two mentioned versions are not geared towards the Asus Eee PC’s intended market, Microsoft has every reason to minimize the systems requirements of the Eee PC to use Windows. After all, if Windows-based Asus Eee PCs cost twice as much as the original Linux versions (due to increased RAM and flash capacity), it will be doubtful if users will find them appealing. Besides at double the price, that would put them way way past the “impulse buy” range.

Asus, or rather Microsoft and Asus then have to price the Windows versions rather close to the Linux versions so that the difference will become insignificant. But will this be enough to make buyers opt for Windows?

I think it depends. It depends on what applications will be included with the Windows version. The current Linux (well, Xandros) version comes with over 40 applications – making the Asus Eee PC instantly usable, especially for its intended market. Even without adding new applications, admittedly its weakness, the subnote will more than suffice for surfing the net, emailing, IM chatting, or just plain learning or playing the bundled games.

More importantly, it also depends on what additional user interface will be included. There is a reason why Grandpa or Auntie Miriam does not use the computer and a lot has to do with Windows itself. As much as trade reviewers describe it as user-friendly, it just isn’t user friendly enough for some people, especially older folks.

The people I have not been able to visualize using a Wintel PC somehow I can bring myself to imagine them using the Asus Eee PC, all because of the Easy Mode menu. It is so easy to teach them to click this to do this, click that to do that. Of course, with Windows it is possible to set everything up to approximate the Easy Mode, but that is the point – someone has to set it up. With the Easy Mode, it is there as soon as you turn on the Eee PC.

So maybe Microsoft might learn from Xandros, after all, aren’t they supposed to be partners of some sort now? Then Microsoft might just come up with its own version of the Easy Mode interface. But that still leaves the bundled applications issue.

While there are several freeware Windows apps, their quality often does not come up to the level of their Linux counterparts. So Xandros still keeps the lead here. But seeing how Microsoft is becoming aggressive, I wouldn’t be surprised if it comes up with its own suite of applications. After all, the Asus Eee PC belongs to the Intel Classmate PC, which itself belongs to the new breed of super-portables that seem to be popping up everywhere these days. In short, it is an emerging market that is expanding fast. And one Microsoft can not ignore because of the Internet access they provide. Microsoft already got beaten badly by Google et al with the Internet. It can ill-afford to surrender its position in the OS market, both for PCs and mobile devices, more so now that Google has released Android, its open source OS for handsets.

So what can Xandros do to keep Microsoft Windows away? Address its weakness – the one I previously mentioned. Make it easy for users to download new applications. Make it easy for registered users to be notified of new apps and have the option of the apps automatically downloaded and installed. Do that and that can stay ahead of the game. They don’t, they can wait for Microsoft to eventually shove them out. In three tries. Guaranteed.